Ethiopia finds itself in a precarious position, juggling internal conflicts, military exhaustion, and risky geopolitical goals. Maj. Gen. Alemshet Degife, a senior Ethiopian army officer, recently announced a significant shift in strategy: the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) will withdraw from the Amhara region, leaving the ongoing two-year conflict against the Amhara Fano rebels to local police and militia forces.
According to this officer, the Fano rebels are disorganized and fragmented, making them manageable for militia and police forces without the involvement of the national army. However, critics argue that this move underscores the depleted state of Ethiopia’s military after years of near-continuous warfare in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara regions.
Since Abiy Ahmed assumed power six years ago, the ENDF has been embroiled in relentless conflicts, leading to significant losses among its most seasoned troops and army officers. For many, Maj. Gen. Alemshet’s return to the military from his chicken farm during this period symbolizes the army’s ethnic-based hierarchy and its ongoing struggles. The military’s depletion of experienced personnel, mainly during the Tigray conflict, has left it relying on newly recruited unexperienced militia and military forces, raising concerns about its preparedness for larger conflicts in the future.
Maj. Gen. Alemshet acknowledged the need for the army to regroup, return to its barracks, and undergo additional training. However, this decision leaves the Amhara region vulnerable to potential instability and raises questions about whether police and militia forces are adequately equipped to handle the increasingly formidable Amhara Fano rebels.
Beyond its internal conflicts, Ethiopia is pursuing a risky geopolitical ambition on the Red Sea. Maj. Gen. Alemshet recently reiterated Ethiopia’s claim to access the Red Sea for its naval base, a move that has raised alarm among observers. He framed this ambition as “Ethiopia’s right” suggesting that it could be achieved either peacefully or through military force.
Citing the Ankara Agreement signed with Somalia, Maj. Gen. Alemshet described the agreement as a diplomatic victory that acknowledges “Ethiopia’s right to sea access.” However, that claim can easily be debunked as the agreement only pertains to Ethiopia’s “commercial use” of Somali ports and does not grant Ethiopia sovereign access to the Red Sea.
Critics have accused Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party of using the agreement as a propaganda tool to rally domestic support.
Maj. Gen. Alemshet singled out Eritrea and Egypt as obstacles to Ethiopia’s ambitions on the Red Sea, labeling them “historical enemies.” However, his remarks ignore Eritrea’s critical role in aiding Ethiopia during its war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) between 2018 and 2021. Eritrea’s military intervention was instrumental in securing a victory for Ethiopia’s current government, a fact that the General conveniently omitted.
Ethiopia faces mounting challenges as it navigates internal conflicts and external ambitions. The decision to withdraw the army from the Amhara region highlights the fragility of the ENDF, while the push for Red Sea access risks escalating tensions in an already volatile region.
As Ethiopia attempts to rebuild its military and assert its geopolitical interests, its inexperienced leaders must tread carefully to avoid plunging the country into further turmoil. The coming years will test whether Ethiopia can reconcile its internal struggles with its external aspirations. [TN]